How big could the tokenized-asset market get, and how reliable are the forecasts?

The full answer

How big is the tokenized-asset market today?

Data cited by The Crypto Basic on July 24, 2026 put the tokenized-asset market at $410.70 billion. That total was split into $36.72 billion of distributed value and $373.98 billion of represented value [1]. The same report said distributed value, excluding stablecoins, stood at $25.39 billion at the start of 2026 [1].

Represented value was about 91% of the total on that date, by this site’s arithmetic from The Crypto Basic’s figures. Distributed value excluding stablecoins grew about 45% between the start of 2026 and July 24, 2026. That is a measured past rate, not a forecast.

This is the measured base any forecast starts from. This site has not yet checked them against their source documents, so this page lists them under what is not yet known rather than as facts.

What does each forecast include or exclude?

The definition decides the size. The Crypto Basic’s own figures show this. On July 24, 2026 the XRP Ledger held $1.319 billion of distributed value when stablecoins were counted and $323.18 million when they were not [1]. With represented value added, the XRP Ledger total rose to $5.35 billion including stablecoins. A single product, JMWH from Justoken, accounted for $2.229 billion of that [1]. RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin, made up 67.96% of the ledger’s distributed value [1].

Three choices change a headline number several times over. The first is whether stablecoins count. The second is whether represented value counts. The third is whether one large issuer is in or out. As of September 30, 2026, I could not find which of these each published forecast counts. Until they do, a forecast figure and a measured figure cannot be compared directly.

Size also differs from access. Ondo’s OUSG fund was used in a tokenized Treasury redemption pilot on the XRP Ledger on May 6, 2026 [2]. Ondo’s release states that OUSG tokens are available only to accredited investors and qualified purchasers [2]. The question of how much counted value can actually trade is covered in how much of the XRP Ledger’s tokenized value is tradable.

How accurate were earlier tokenization forecasts for years that have now passed?

As of September 30, 2026, I could not find any earlier tokenization forecast whose target year had already passed. This site therefore cannot yet score past forecasts against outcomes. The only measured trend in the checked sources is the growth in distributed value during 2026 reported by The Crypto Basic [1]. That is one reporting window from one data set.

Who commissioned each forecast, and do they sell tokenization services?

The checked sources do not say who commissioned or paid for the McKinsey, BCG or Ripple forecasts. Whether any of these forecasts was commissioned or funded by a tokenization vendor is not established by the cited sources, so treat the forecast sizes with caution. The Ondo release shows the same pattern in a smaller form. Ondo Finance Inc. Provides tokenization services to the OUSG fund [2]. In the same release, Ondo writes that tokenized real-world assets “have grown significantly” [2]. That is a company describing its own market, and the sentence is Ondo’s claim, not an independent measurement. That is a company describing its own market, and the sentence is Ondo’s claim, not an independent measurement [2].

Ripple’s scale in this area is itself reported by others. crypto.news reported that Ripple spent roughly $4 billion on acquisitions between 2023 and 2025 [5]. Large figures near Ripple are often misread. CaptainAltcoin reported on September 10, 2026 that about $13 trillion of corporate payment activity associated with GTreasury does not mean $13 trillion was settled in XRP [3]. The site’s page on which trillion-dollar figures around Ripple are real flows covers these figures.

What share of today’s tokenized market is on the XRP Ledger?

On The Crypto Basic’s July 24, 2026 figures, the XRP Ledger held $323.18 million of $36.72 billion in distributed value excluding stablecoins, or about 0.9% [1]. The ledger’s $5.35 billion total includes stablecoins. The market total of $410.70 billion is not described as including them. The two should not be divided into each other. A same-source comparison across chains is on the page about how XRP Ledger activity compares with Ethereum, Solana and Stellar.

Would a larger tokenized market mean more demand for XRP?

The strongest evidence against that link comes from two sources. CoinDesk reported on March 13, 2026 that XRP Ledger activity is increasingly driven by RLUSD and by tokenized assets that pass through XRP as a bridge currency but do not create sustained demand for the token [4]. crypto.news reported on July 25, 2026 that Ripple’s acquired businesses run mainly on fiat, traditional assets and RLUSD. It called this a path to institutional success that does not require XRP demand [5]. CaptainAltcoin put the general rule plainly: “Connected to Ripple” does not mean “uses XRP” [3].

Some live examples do use the XRP Ledger itself. In the May 6, 2026 pilot, Ondo said the ledger processed the asset leg of the OUSG redemption in under five seconds [2]. That shows the ledger carrying a tokenized asset. The release does not show XRP being bought or held. Whether tokenization creates demand for the token is examined in does tokenization on the XRP Ledger create any demand for XRP. What such markets need from a ledger is covered in what tokenized markets need.